Unemployment and Inflation Consequences of Unexpected Election Results | Zendy

BERLEMANN MICHAEL | Zendy; MARKWARDT GUNTHER | Zendy

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Unemployment and Inflation Consequences of Unexpected Election Results

Author(s) -

BERLEMANN MICHAEL,

MARKWARDT GUNTHER

Publication year - 2007

Publication title -

journal of money, credit and banking

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 1.763

H-Index - 108

eISSN - 1538-4616

pISSN - 0022-2879

DOI - 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2007.00093.x

Subject(s) - surprise , economics , inflation (cosmology) , unemployment , rational expectations , polling , panel data , empirical evidence , empirical research , business cycle , monetary economics , test (biology) , econometrics , macroeconomics , positive economics , social psychology , psychology , philosophy , physics , epistemology , theoretical physics , computer science , operating system , paleontology , biology

The empirical evidence toward rational partisan theory of business cycles is mixed and thus inconclusive. This is due to the enormous heterogeneity of the existing empirical studies. Only a few of these test explicitly for the central theoretical innovation that post‐electoral blips in economic activity depend on the degree of the electoral surprise. Using polling data we present empirical evidence in favor of rational partisan theory for a panel of OECD countries.

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