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Forecasting the Public Finances in the Treasury
Author(s) -
PIKE TIM,
SAVAGE DAVID
Publication year - 1998
Publication title -
fiscal studies
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.63
H-Index - 40
eISSN - 1475-5890
pISSN - 0143-5671
DOI - 10.1111/j.1475-5890.1998.tb00276.x
Subject(s) - treasury , economics , government (linguistics) , subject (documents) , finance , macroeconomics , political science , computer science , law , philosophy , linguistics , library science
This article describes the methods used by the Treasury and other government departments for making forecasts of the public finances. A highly detailed approach is required because of the Treasury's budgetary role, but the aggregated results are subjected to careful ‘top‐down’ checks. Forecasts have a necessary role in fiscal policy. But they are subject to large margins of error, and should be presented and used with caution. JEL classification : E6, H1, H6.