Assessing range‐wide conservation status change in an unmonitored widespread A frican bird species

Abstract Aim With the exception of S outh A frica there are no systematic, long‐term, large‐scale bird monitoring programmes in A frica, and for much of the continent the most comprehensive available data for most species are incidental occurrence records. Can such data be used to assess range‐wide conservation status of widespread low‐density species? We examine this using K ori B ustard A rdeotis kori , a large, easily identifiable species with an extensive A frican range. Location S outhern and E ast A frica, 14 countries. Methods A comprehensive and systematic review of published and unpublished sources provided 1948 unique locality records spanning the years 1863–2009; these included 410 non‐atlas records and 97 historical (pre‐1970) records. Range‐size changes were examined by comparing minimum convex polygons to quantify E xtent of O ccurrence pre‐ and post‐1970, and by testing whether more historical records fell outside the recent (post‐1970) 95% probability kernel than expected by chance. Additionally, qualitative evidence of changes in abundance was obtained from historical published accounts and contemporary assessments by in‐country experts. Results Since the late 19th century, range‐size (measured as E xtent of O ccurrence) has contracted, by 21% in E ast A frica and 8% in southern A frica. There is strong qualitative evidence of considerable pre‐ and post‐1970 population declines in all range states, except Z ambia (slight increase) and A ngola (trend unclear). In some countries, declines occurred from the early 1900s. Thus, while relatively modest change in range‐size has occurred in over 100 years, numbers have greatly reduced throughout the species’ range. Main conclusions Our methodology allowed objective appraisal of continent‐wide K ori status. Despite lacking quantitative population estimates and trends, and poor understanding of the species’ autecology, common issues for many A frican species, incidental occurrence records can be used to assess range‐wide changes in status. We recommend that this or similar approaches be applied to other widespread low‐density species that probably also have rapidly declining populations despite apparently stable range extents.