Open AccessThe alternative explanation to the alternative‐outcome effect and the detection of the focal outcome effect[Note 2. 2 I thank the anonymous reviewer who suggested that ...]
Author(s) -
Nakamura Kuninori
Publication year - 2004
Publication title -
japanese psychological research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.392
H-Index - 30
eISSN - 1468-5884
pISSN - 0021-5368
DOI - 10.1111/j.1468-5884.2004.00235.x
Subject(s) - outcome (game theory) , randomness , econometrics , psychology , statistics , mathematics , mathematical economics
Previous studies on subjective probability judgment indicate that pair‐wise comparison between the focal and the strongest alternative outcome plays an important role in probability judgment. This study, however, found that the randomness of alternative outcomes affected probability judgment for focal outcome. In the present study, 182 participants provided probability estimates for winning on hypothetical slot machines where both successes and losses were composed of multiple outcomes. The randomness of both the focal and alternative outcomes were defined by the expression used in Rappoport and Budescu (1997). The analysis indicated that the more random the distributions of both focal and alternative outcomes, the higher the estimated probability for focal outcome. Some theoretical suggestions are discussed.