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Modelling association football scores
Author(s) -
Maher M. J.
Publication year - 1982
Publication title -
statistica neerlandica
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.52
H-Index - 39
eISSN - 1467-9574
pISSN - 0039-0402
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-9574.1982.tb00782.x
Subject(s) - poisson distribution , bivariate analysis , poisson regression , football , negative binomial distribution , statistics , mathematics , binomial (polynomial) , association (psychology) , goodness of fit , econometrics , hierarchy , correlation , overdispersion , psychology , medicine , geography , economics , population , geometry , environmental health , archaeology , psychotherapist , market economy
Abstract Previous authors have rejected the Poisson model for association football scores in favour of the Negative Binomial. This paper, however, investigates the Poisson model further. Parameters representing the teams' inherent attacking and defensive strengths are incorporated and the most appropriate model is found from a hierarchy of models. Observed and expected frequencies of scores are compared and goodness‐of‐fit tests show that although there are some small systematic differences, an independent Poisson model gives a reasonably accurate description of football scores. Improvements can be achieved by the use of a bivariate Poisson model with a correlation between scores of 0.2.