Premium
Correlated Binary Variables and Multi‐level Probability Assessments
Author(s) -
PAPATHOMAS MICHAIL
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
scandinavian journal of statistics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.359
H-Index - 65
eISSN - 1467-9469
pISSN - 0303-6898
DOI - 10.1111/j.1467-9469.2007.00563.x
Subject(s) - mathematics , binary number , joint probability distribution , marginal distribution , binary data , parametric statistics , statistics , relation (database) , econometrics , random variable , data mining , computer science , arithmetic
. We introduce a fully parametric approach for updating beliefs regarding correlated binary variables, after marginal probability assessments based on information of varying quality are provided by an expert. This approach allows for the calculation of a predictive joint density for future assessments. The proposed methodology offers new insight into the parameters that control the dependence of the binary variables, and the relation of these parameters to the joint density of the probability assessments. A comprehensible elicitation procedure for the model parameters is put forward. The approach taken is motivated and illustrated through a practical application.