The Allocation of Talent over the Business Cycle and its Long‐term Effect on Sectoral Productivity

It is well documented that graduates enter different occupations in recessions than in booms. In our paper, we examine the impact of the resulting change in the allocation of talent for long‐term productivity and output in a sector. In a setting where output can be quantitatively and qualitatively measured, we find evidence that talent flows to stable sectors in recessions and to cyclical sectors in booms: economists starting or graduating from their PhD in a recession are significantly more productive in academia over the long term than economists starting or graduating in a boom.