Linking key intervention timing to rapid decline of the COVID-19 effective reproductive number to quantify lessons from mainland China | Zendy

Yanni Xiao | Zendy; Biao Tang | Zendy; Jian Wu | Zendy; Robert Cheke | Zendy; Sanyi Tang | Zendy

Open Access

Linking key intervention timing to rapid decline of the COVID-19 effective reproductive number to quantify lessons from mainland China

Author(s) -

Yanni Xiao,

Biao Tang,

Jian Wu,

Robert Cheke,

Sanyi Tang

Publication year - 2020

Publication title -

international journal of infectious diseases

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 1.278

H-Index - 89

eISSN - 1878-3511

pISSN - 1201-9712

DOI - 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.06.030

Subject(s) - covid-19 , outbreak , china , mainland china , quarantine , psychological intervention , demography , intervention (counseling) , geography , socioeconomics , medicine , economic growth , virology , economics , sociology , disease , archaeology , pathology , psychiatry , infectious disease (medical specialty)

Effective reproductive numbers (R t ) were calculated from data on the COVID-19 outbreak in China and linked to dates in 2020 when different interventions were enacted. From a maximum of 3.98 before the lockdown in Wuhan City, the values of R t declined to below 1 by the second week of February, after the construction of hospitals dedicated to COVID-19 patients. The R t continued to decline following additional measures in line with the policy of "early detection, early report, early quarantine, and early treatment." The results provide quantitative evaluations of how intervention measures and their timings succeeded, from which lessons can be learned by other countries dealing with future outbreaks.

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