Premium
Estimating trends and seasonality in coronary heart disease
Author(s) -
Barnett A. G.,
Dobson A. J.
Publication year - 2004
Publication title -
statistics in medicine
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.996
H-Index - 183
eISSN - 1097-0258
pISSN - 0277-6715
DOI - 10.1002/sim.1927
Subject(s) - seasonality , coronary heart disease , contrast (vision) , statistics , focus (optics) , econometrics , computer science , medicine , mathematics , physics , artificial intelligence , optics
Abstract We present two methods of estimating the trend, seasonality and noise in time series of coronary heart disease events. In contrast to previous work we use a non‐linear trend, allow multiple seasonal components, and carefully examine the residuals from the fitted model. We show the importance of estimating these three aspects of the observed data to aid insight of the underlying process, although our major focus is on the seasonal components. For one method we allow the seasonal effects to vary over time and show how this helps the understanding of the association between coronary heart disease and varying temperature patterns. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.