Statistical dynamic models of social systems: The general theory

The theoretical background necessary for the application of statistical dynamic techniques in the social sciences is reviewed and a new method of modeling social systems is proposed. Advantages result from working within a general systems context. The analysis starts with some basic ideas about the dynamic nature of social systems and the need for a statistical dynamic approach is explained. The dynamics of probability distributions is studied and the problem of assigning initial distributions is solved using ideas from information theory. The concept of statistical equilibrium is introduced. Social systems generally are open to the environment. It is argued that the environment can be characterized by certain fields and a probability distribution representing a system in statistical equilibrium with its environment is derived. Finally, a method of modeling social systems using statistical dynamic techniques is devised. It has the advantage that it needs little dynamic information.