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Launch behaviors are a key determinant of the orbital environment. Physicaland economic forces such as fragmentations and changing launch costs, orpolicies like post-mission disposal (PMD) compliance requirements, will alterthe relative attractiveness of different orbits and lead operators to adjusttheir launch behaviors. However, integrating models of adaptive launch behaviorwith models of the debris environment remains an open challenge. We present astatistical framework for integrating theoretically-grounded models of launchbehavior with evolutionary models of the low-Earth orbit (LEO) environment. Weimplement this framework using data on satellite launches, the orbitalenvironment, launch vehicle prices, sectoral revenues, and government budgetsover 2007-2020. The data are combined with a multi-shell and multi-speciesParticle-in-a-Box (PIB) model of the debris environment and a two-stagebudgeting model of commercial, civil government, and defense decisions toallocate new launches across orbital shells. We demonstrate the framework'scapabilities in three counterfactual scenarios: unexpected fragmentation eventsin highly-used regions, a sharp decrease in the cost of accessing lower partsof LEO, and increasing compliance with 25-year PMD guidelines. Substitutionacross orbits based on their evolving characteristics and the behavior of otheroperators induces notable changes in the debris environment relative to modelswithout behavioral channels.

An integrated debris environment assessment model