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To control African swine fever (ASF) efficiently, easily interpretablemetrics of the outbreak dynamics are needed to plan and adapt the requiredmeasures. We found that the spread pattern of African Swine Fever cases in wildboar follows the mechanics of a diffusion process, at least in the early phase,for the cases that occurred in Germany. Following incursion into a previouslyunaffected area, infection disseminates locally within a naive and abundantwild boar population. Using real case data for Germany, we derive statisticsabout the time differences and distances between consecutive case reports. Withthe use of these statistics, we generate an ensemble of random walkers(continuous time random walks, CTRW) that resemble the properties of theobserved outbreak pattern as one possible realization of all possible diseasedissemination patterns. The trained random walker ensemble yields the diffusionconstant, the affected area, and the outbreak velocity of early ASF spread inwild boar. These quantities are easy to interpret, robust, and may begeneralized or adapted to different regions. Therefore, diffusion metrics canbe useful descriptors of early disease dynamics and help facilitate efficientcontrol of African Swine Fever.

The Diffusion Metrics of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar