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The SLEUTH model, based on the Cellular Automata (CA), can be applied to citydevelopment simulation in metropolitan areas. In this study the SLEUTH modelwas used to model the urban expansion and predict the future possible behaviorof the urban growth in Tehran. The fundamental data were five Landsat TM andETM images of 1988, 1992, 1998, 2001 and 2010. Three scenarios were designed tosimulate the spatial pattern. The first scenario assumed historicalurbanization mode would persist and the only limitations for development wereheight and slope. The second one was a compact scenario which makes the growthmostly internal and limited the expansion of suburban areas. The last scenarioproposed a polycentric urban structure which let the little patches growwithout any limitation and would not consider the areas beyond the specificbuffer zone from the larger patches for development. Results showed that theurban growth rate was greater in the first scenario in comparison with theother two scenarios. Also it was shown that the third scenario was moresuitable for Tehran since it could avoid undesirable effects such as congestionand pollution and was more in accordance with the conditions of Tehran city.

Using the SLEUTH urban growth model to simulate the impacts of future policy scenarios on urban land use in the Tehran metropolitan area in Iran