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In recent years scholars have built maps of science by connecting theacademic fields that cite each other, are cited together, or that cite asimilar literature. But since scholars cannot always publish in the fields theycite, or that cite them, these science maps are only rough proxies for thepotential of a scholar, organization, or country, to enter a new academicfield. Here we use a large dataset of scholarly publications disambiguated atthe individual level to create a map of science-or research space-where linksconnect pairs of fields based on the probability that an individual haspublished in both of them. We find that the research space is a significantlymore accurate predictor of the fields that individuals and organizations willenter in the future than citation based science maps. At the country level,however, the research space and citations based science maps are equallyaccurate. These findings show that data on career trajectories-the set offields that individuals have previously published in-provide more accuratepredictors of future research output for more focalized units-such asindividuals or organizations-than citation based science maps.

The Research Space: using the career paths of scholars to predict the evolution of the research output of individuals, institutions, and nations