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The cost-benefit analysis formulates the holy trinity of objectives ofproject management - cost, schedule, and benefits. As our previous research hasshown, ICT projects deviate from their initial cost estimate by more than 10%in 8 out of 10 cases. Academic research has argued that Optimism Bias and BlackSwan Blindness cause forecasts to fall short of actual costs. Firstly, optimismbias has been linked to effects of deception and delusion, which is caused bytaking the inside-view and ignoring distributional information when makingdecisions. Secondly, we argued before that Black Swan Blindness makesdecision-makers ignore outlying events even if decisions and judgements arebased on the outside view. Using a sample of 1,471 ICT projects with a totalvalue of USD 241 billion - we answer the question: Can we show the differenteffects of Normal Performance, Delusion, and Deception? We calculated thecumulative distribution function (CDF) of (actual-forecast)/forecast. Ourresults show that the CDF changes at two tipping points - the first onetransforms an exponential function into a Gaussian bell curve. The secondtipping point transforms the bell curve into a power law distribution with thepower of 2. We argue that these results show that project performance up to thefirst tipping point is politically motivated and project performance above thesecond tipping point indicates that project managers and decision-makers arefooled by random outliers, because they are blind to thick tails. We then showthat Black Swan ICT projects are a significant source of uncertainty to anorganisation and that management needs to be aware of.

Double Whammy - How ICT Projects are Fooled by Randomness and Screwed by Political Intent