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There are several approaches in estimating losses caused by the environmental intervention. The common one is to determine the incomes obtained before and after the perturbation where the difference is the net loss or gain. However, the loss sometimes extends to the consumers who have to pay more for the goods affected by the perturbation following the law of demand and supply. Thus, in fisheries, the losses are determined by the differences of producer and consumer surpluses. The forecasting technique using time series data collected in 1992-1997 is used to predict landings after perturbation for the next six years. ARIMA (2,0,2) model is found suitable for the forecasting to perform. It is suggested that in the situation where the landings trend is already decreasing even before the perturbation, forecasting technique is used to discern the losses. The reason being, the decreasing trend after perturbation is likely to be perceived as naturally caused thus does not merit losses claim.

Use of Forecasting Models to Predict Producers and Consumers Losses