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Population health is a major area of concern for researchers in developing nations with large demographic base. Most of the geographical studies done in India have focused on modelling communicable diseases only. The importance of constructing spatial models for non-communicable diseases has risen tremendously in recent times due to their ever-increasing burden. The present paper attempts to create a regression model of cardiovascular mortality in Bist Doab region of Punjab (India) . A composite risk factor score was calculated block-wise and was used as an explanatory variable for the observed spatial patterns of cardiovascular mortality. The regression modelling was done using Ordinary Least Squares method of Spatial Analyst tool in ArcGIS 9.3. The resultant regression coefficient was 0.44 and the model was capable of explaining nearly 35% of variation in the observed spatial patterns of cardiovascular deaths. The model was statistically significant at 0.05 level. Given the complex aetiology of cardiovascular diseases and the lack of block-wise data on several key risk factors, it was concluded that this model displayed considerably good performance. Finally, Moran’s I test was used to check spatial autocorrelation to ensure that the residuals are not spatially autocorrelated.

Spatial Modelling of Cardiovascular Mortality Patterns: A GIS based Study of Rural Bist Doab Region (Punjab, India)