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A Regiao Cariri/Centro Sul do Ceara e responsavel por grande parte da producao de milho no estado, no entanto e muito afetada por variacoes da pluviometria. Analisou-se a influencia da variabilidade pluviometrica sobre a producao de milho na regiao e sobre aspectos socioeconomicos locais. A Regiao e composta por 42 municipios dos quais foram colhidos os dados das precipitacoes de 1981 a 2011 junto a Fundacao Cearense de Meteorologia. Foram obtidos junto ao Instituo Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica os dados da producao, produtividade, area plantada e area colhida de milho. Por meio do Instituto de Pesquisa e Estrategia Economica do Ceara obtiveram-se os indices de IDH, PIB e PIB per capita. Calcularam-se as correlacoes entre as variaveis pelo metodo de correlacao de Pearson e foram analisadas estatisticamente pelo teste de T-Student. Foram encontradas positivas correlacoes entre a produtividade do cereal e a precipitacao media anual, salientando-se que alguns municipios apresentaram significância estatistica pelo teste de T-Student. Verificou-se tambem relacao entre precipitacao, populacao, IDH, PIB, PIB per capita, area plantada e colhida e produtividade, o que significa que a variavel meteorologica influencia em aspectos agricolas e socioeconomicos na regiao. Abstract The Cariri Region/Midsouth Ceara is responsible for much of the corn production in the state, however it is greatly affected by variations in rainfall. In this study, it was analyzed the influence of rainfall variability over maize production in the region and over local socio-economic aspects. The region consists of 42 municipalities from which data of rainfall were collected from 1981 to 2011 by the Cearense Foundation of Meteorology. Moreover, data were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics about the production figures, the corn area planted, the corn area harvested and productivity. Additionally, from the Ceara Research Institute on Economic Research, it was obtained the indexes of HDI, GNP and GNP per capita. On these grounds, it was calculated the correlations between variables by Person’s correlation method and also analyzed statistically by Student’s t-test. The results showed positive correlations between the cereal productivity and the average annual rainfall, pointing out that some municipalities showed statistical significance by the Student’s t-test. It was also verified the relationship between rainfall, population, HDI, GNP, GNP per capita, the corn area planted, the corn area harvested and productivity, indicating that the meteorological variable influences on agricultural and socioeconomic aspects in the region.

Relationship between rainfall variability, social economic index and agricultural production in Cariri / South Central Ceará