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RESUMO : Neste trabalho e desenvolvida uma aplicacao das Cadeias de Markov com objetivo de analise e previsao dos indices de probabilidades de estados relacionados aos riscos de baixo, medio e alto impacto em obras de construcao civil. Os estados estao relacionados aos niveis de impactos que diferentes areas da construcao civil podem sofrer quanto aos fatores de: cronograma, custo e qualidade de servico. A metodologia foi desenvolvida com o auxilio do software MATLAB 4.0, sendo possivel conhecer as probabilidades de ocorrencia dos riscos dentro de um periodo de 12 meses. Os resultados encontrados podem ser usados como parâmetros para a tomada de decisao relacionada a gestao de riscos de obras. ABSTRACT : In this work is developed an application of the Markov Chain with  the object of analysis and prediction of the states of probability related to low, medium and high-risk impacts in a construction. The states are related with the impacts levels in which different areas of civil construction may suffer as to the factors of: schedule, cost and quality of service. The methodology was developed with the help of MATLAB software 4.0, being able to know the probabilities of occurrence of the risks within a period of 12 months. The results can be used as parameters for efficient decision making and construction risk management.

DESENVOLVIMENTO DE PROCESSOS MARKOVIANOS NA GESTÃO DA CONSTRUÇÃO CIVIL [ Development of Markovian Process in the management of civil construction ]