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. This paper describes a method for reducing the uncertainty associated with utilizing fully numerical models for wind resource assessment in theearly stages of project development. The presented method is based on a combination of numerical weather predictions (NWPs) and microscaledownscaling using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to predict the local wind resource. Numerical modelling is (at least) 2 orders of magnitudeless expensive and time consuming compared to conventional measurements. As a consequence, using numerical methods could enable a wind projectdeveloper to evaluate a larger number of potential sites before making an investment. This would likely increase the chances of finding the bestavailable projects. A technique is described, multiple transfer location analysis (MTLA), where several different locations for performing the data transfer between theNWP and the CFD model are evaluated. Independent CFD analyses are conducted for each evaluated data transfer location. As a result, MTLA willgenerate multiple independent observations of the data transfer between the NWP and the CFD model. This results in a reduced uncertainty in the datatransfer, but more importantly MTLA will identify locations where the result of the data transfer deviates from the neighbouring locations. Thiswill enable further investigation of the outliers and give the analyst a possibility to correct erroneous predictions. The second part is foundto reduce the number and magnitude of large deviations in the numerical predictions relative to the reference measurements. The Modern Energy Wind Assessment Model (ME-WAM) with and without MTLA is validated against field measurements. The validation sample for ME-WAMwithout MTLA consists of 35 observations and gives a mean bias of −0.10 m s−1 and a SD of0.44 m s−1. ME-WAM with MTLA is validated against a sample of 45 observations, and the mean bias is found to be+0.05 m s−1 with a SD of 0.26 m s−1. After adjusting for the composition of the two samples with regardsto the number of sites in complex terrain, the reduction in variability achieved by MTLA is quantified to 11 % of the SD fornon-complex sites and 35 % for complex sites.

Validation of uncertainty reduction by using multiple transfer locations for WRF–CFD coupling in numerical wind energy assessments