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. We investigate wake effects at theAnholt offshore wind farm in Denmark, which is a farm experiencing stronghorizontal wind-speed gradients because of its size and proximity to land.Mesoscale model simulations are used to study the horizontal wind-speedgradients over the wind farm. From analysis of the mesoscale simulations andsupervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA), we show that for westerly flow in particular, there is a clearhorizontal wind-speed gradient over the wind farm. We also use the mesoscalesimulations to derive the undisturbed inflow conditions that are coupled withthree commonly used wake models: two engineering approaches (the Park and G. C. Larsen models) and a linearized Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes approach(Fuga). The effect of the horizontal wind-speed gradient on annual energyproduction estimates is not found to be critical compared to estimates fromboth the average undisturbed wind climate of all turbines' positions and theundisturbed wind climate of a position in the middle of the wind farm.However, annual energy production estimates can largely differ when usingwind climates at positions that are strongly influenced by the horizontalwind-speed gradient. When looking at westerly flow wake cases, where theimpact of the horizontal wind-speed gradient on the power of the undisturbedturbines is largest, the wake models agree with the SCADA fairly well; whenlooking at a southerly flow case, where the wake losses are highest, the wakemodels tend to underestimate the wake loss. With the mesoscale-wake modelsetup, we are also able to estimate the capacity factor of the wind farmrather well when compared to that derived from the SCADA. Finally, weestimate the uncertainty of the wake models by bootstrapping the SCADA. Themodels tend to underestimate the wake losses (the median relative model erroris 8.75 %) and the engineering wake models are as uncertain as Fuga. Theseresults are specific for this wind farm, the available dataset, and thederived inflow conditions.

On wake modeling, wind-farm gradients, and AEP predictions at the Anholt wind farm