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Recent studies have investigated the potential link between the  freshwater input derived from the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet  and the observed recent increase in sea ice extent in the Southern  Ocean. In this study, we assess the impact of an additional  freshwater flux on the trend in sea ice extent and concentration in  simulations with data assimilation, spanning the period 1850–2009,  as well as in retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) initialised in  1980. In the simulations with data assimilation,  the inclusion of an additional freshwater flux that follows an autoregressive process  improves the reconstruction of the trend in ice extent and  concentration between 1980 and 2009. This is linked   to a better efficiency of the data assimilation  procedure but can also be due to a better  representation of the freshwater cycle in the Southern Ocean.  The results of the hindcast simulations  show that an adequate initial state, reconstructed  thanks to the data assimilation procedure including an additional  freshwater flux,   can lead to an increase  in the sea ice extent spanning several decades  that is in agreement with satellite observations. In our hindcast  simulations, an increase in sea ice extent is obtained even in the  absence of any major change in the freshwater input over the last decades. Therefore, while the  additional freshwater flux appears to play a key role in the reconstruction of  the evolution of the sea ice in the simulation with data assimilation,  it does not seem to be required in the hindcast simulations.   The present   work   thus provides encouraging results for sea ice predictions in the  Southern Ocean, as in our simulation the positive trend in ice extent  over the last 30 years is largely determined by the state of  the system in the late 1970s

Influence of freshwater input on the skill of decadal forecast of sea ice in the Southern Ocean