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. Humans have substantially altered soil and landscape patterns and properties due to agricultural use, with severe impacts onbiodiversity, carbon sequestration and food security. These impacts aredifficult to quantify, because we lack data on long-term changes in soils innatural and agricultural settings and available simulation methods are notsuitable for reliably predicting future development of soils under projected changes in climate and land management. To help overcome these challenges,we developed the HydroLorica soil–landscape evolution model that simulates soil development by explicitly modeling the spatial water balance as a driver of soil- and landscape-forming processes. We simulated 14 500 years of soil formation under natural conditions for three scenarios of different rainfall inputs. For each scenario we added a 500-year period of intensiveagricultural land use, where we introduced tillage erosion and changedvegetation type. Our results show substantial differences between natural soil patterns underdifferent rainfall input. With higher rainfall, soil patterns become moreheterogeneous due to increased tree throw and water erosion. Agriculturalpatterns differ substantially from the natural patterns, with highervariation of soil properties over larger distances and larger correlationswith terrain position. In the natural system, rainfall is the dominantfactor influencing soil variation, while for agricultural soil patternslandform explains most of the variation simulated. The cultivation of soilsthus changed the dominant factors and processes influencing soil formation and thereby also increased predictability of soil patterns. Our studyhighlights the potential of soil–landscape evolution modeling for simulating past and future developments of soil and landscape patterns. Our results confirm that humans have become the dominant soil-forming factor inagricultural landscapes.

Modeling soil and landscape evolution – the effect of rainfall and land-use change on soil and landscape patterns