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In this paper, a numerical dynamic-thermo-dynamic sea-ice model for the  Baltic Sea is used to analyze the variability of ice conditions in  three winter seasons. The modelling results are validated with station  (water temperature) and satellite data (ice concentration) as well as  by qualitative comparisons with the Swedish Meteorological and  Hydrological Institute ice charts. Analysis of the results addresses  two major questions. One concerns effects of meteorological forcing on  the spatio-temporal distribution of ice concentration in the  Baltic. Patterns of correlations between air temperature, wind speed,  and ice-covered area are demonstrated to be different in larger, more  open sub-basins (e.g., the Bothnian Sea) than in the smaller ones  (e.g., the Bothnian Bay). Whereas the correlations with the air  temperature are positive in both cases, the influence of wind is  pronounced only in large basins, leading to increase/decrease of areas  with small/large ice concentrations, respectively. The other question  concerns the role of ice dynamics in the evolution of the ice  cover. By means of simulations with the dynamic model turned on and  off, the ice dynamics is shown to play a crucial role in interactions  between the ice and the upper layers of the water column, especially  during periods with highly varying wind speeds and directions. In  particular, due to the fragmentation of the ice cover and the modified  surface fluxes, the ice dynamics influences the rate of change of the  total ice volume, in some cases by as much as 1 km<sup>3</sup> per day. As  opposed to most other numerical studies on the sea-ice in the Baltic  Sea, this work concentrates on the short-term variability of the ice  cover and its response to the synoptic-scale forcing

Numerical modelling of thermodynamics and dynamics of sea ice in the Baltic Sea