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. Sea-level rise (SLR) not only increases the threat of coastal flooding, but may also change tidal regimes in estuaries and coastal bays. To investigate such nearshore tidal responses to SLR, a hydrodynamic model of the European Shelf is downscaled to a model of a Dutch coastal bay (the Oosterschelde, i.e., Eastern Scheldt) and forced by SLR scenarios ranging from 0 to 2 m. This way, the effect of SLR on tidal dynamics in the adjacent North Sea is taken into account as well. The model setup does not include meteorological forcing, gravitational circulation, and changes in bottom topography. Our results indicate that SLR up to 2 m induces largerincreases in tidal amplitude and stronger nonlinear tidal distortion in thebay compared to the adjacent shelf sea. Under SLR up to 2 m, the bay shiftsfrom a mixed flood- and ebb-dominant state to complete ebb dominance. Wealso find that tidal asymmetry affects an important component of sedimenttransport. Considering sand bed-load transport only, the changed tidalasymmetry may lead to enhanced export, with potential implications forshoreline management. In this case study, we find that local impacts of SLRcan be highly spatially varying and nonlinear. The model coupling approachapplied here is suggested as a useful tool for establishing local SLRprojections in estuaries and coastal bays elsewhere. Future studies shouldinclude how SLR changes the bed morphology as well as the feedback effect ontides.

Effects of sea-level rise on tides and sediment dynamics in a Dutch tidal bay