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The Dutch Maeslant Barrier, a movable surge barrier in the mouth of\udthe river Rhine, closes when there is a surge in the North Sea and the water\udlevel in the river at Rotterdam exceeds 3 m above mean sea level. An\udimportant aspect of the failure probability is that the barrier might get\uddamaged during a closure and that, within the time needed for repair, a\udsecond critical storm surge may occur. With an estimated closure frequency of\udonce in 10 years, the question of how often the barrier has to be closed\udtwice within one month arises.  Instead of tackling this problem by the application of statistical models on\udthe (short) observational series, we solve the problem by combining the surge\udmodel WAQUA/DCSMv5 with the output of all seasonal forecasts of the European\udCentre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) in the period 1981–2015,\udwhose combination cumulates in a pseudo-observational series of more than\ud6000 years.  We show that the Poisson process model leads to wrong results as it neglects\udthe temporal correlations that are present on daily, weekly and monthly\udtimescales.  By counting the number of double events over a threshold of 2.5 m and\udassuming that the number of events is exponentially related to the\udthreshold, it is found that two closures occur on average once in 150 years\udwithin a month, and once in 330 years within a week. The large uncertainty in\udthese recurrence intervals of more than a factor of two is caused by the\udsensitivity of the results to the Gumbel parameters of the observed record,\udwhich are used for bias correction.  Sea level rise has a significant impact on the recurrence time for both\udsingle and double closures. The recurrence time of single closures doubles\udwith every 18 cm mean sea level rise (assuming that other influences remain\udunchanged) and double closures double with every 10 cm rise. This implies\uda 3–14 times higher probability of a double closure for a 15–40 cm sea\udlevel rise in 2050 (according to the KNMI climate scenarios)

Recurrence intervals for the closure of the Dutch Maeslant surge barrier