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The aim of this study was to investigate the variability of the waterexchanges in the Curonian Lagoon based on the hydraulic regime and theatmospheric forcings. A finite element hydrodynamic model has been appliedto the Curonian Lagoon to simulate the circulation patterns for 10 years.With the help of a transport–diffusion model, the salinity distribution andthe renewal times of the Curonian Lagoon have been investigated when forcedby river runoff, wind, and Baltic Sea level fluctuations. The hydrodynamicmodel has been validated using in situ salinity measurements.  Model results show that the variability depends mainly on seasonal changesin hydrographic forcing and on the dominant wind regimes that prevail overthe Curonian Lagoon. Exchanges between the southern and the northern part ofthe lagoon mostly depend on the wind forcing and are much less influenced bythe river discharge.  However, when looking at the water renewal time, the most important factoris the river discharge into the lagoon. Other physical forcings onlymarginally determine the renewal time, and not even ice cover is able toinfluence it. Even if ice cover strongly inhibits the exchanges between thesouthern and northern lagoon, it is basically not able to change theabsolute value of the renewal times

Seasonal renewal time variability in the Curonian Lagoon caused by atmospheric and hydrographical forcing