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A fault containing two asperities with different strengths is considered. Thefault is embedded in a shear zone subject to a constant strain rate by themotions of adjacent tectonic plates. The fault is modelled as a discretedynamical system where the average values of stress, friction and slip oneach asperity are considered. The state of the fault is described by threevariables: the slip deficits of the asperities and the viscoelasticdeformation. The system has four dynamic modes, for which analyticalsolutions are calculated. The relationship between the state of the faultbefore a seismic event and the sequence of slipping modes in the event isenlightened. Since the moment rate depends on the number and sequence ofslipping modes, the knowledge of the source function of an earthquakeconstrains the orbit of the system in the phase space. If the sourcefunctions of a larger number of consecutive earthquakes were known, the orbitcould be constrained more and more and its evolution could be predicted witha smaller uncertainty. The model is applied to the 1964 Alaska earthquake,which was the effect of the failure of two asperities and for which aremarkable post-seismic relaxation has been observed in the subsequentdecades. The evolution of the system after the 1964 event depends on thestate from which the event was originated, that is constrained by theobserved moment rate. The possible durations of the interseismic interval andthe possible moment rates of the next earthquake are calculated as functionsof the initial state

Stress states and moment rates of a two-asperity fault in the presence of viscoelastic relaxation