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Abstract. Slope stability is a key topic, not only for engineers but also forpoliticians, due to the considerable monetary and human losses thatlandslides can cause every year. In fact, it is estimated that landslideshave caused thousands of deaths and economic losses amounting to tens ofbillions of euros per year around the world. The geological stability ofslopes is affected by several factors, such as climate, earthquakes,lithology and rock structures, among others. Climate is one of the mainfactors, especially when large amounts of rainwater are absorbed in shortperiods of time. Taking this issue into account, we developed an innovativeanalytical model using the limit equilibrium method supported by ageographic information system (GIS). This model is especially useful forpredicting the risk of landslides in scenarios of heavy unpredictablerainfall. The model, hereafter named terrain stability (or TS) is a 2-Dmodel, is programed in MATLAB and includes a steady-state hydrological term.Many variables measured in the field – topography, precipitation and type ofsoil – can be added, changed or updated using simple input parameters. Tovalidate the model, we applied it to a real example – that of a landslidewhich resulted in human and material losses (collapse of a building) atHundidero, La Vinuela (Malaga), Spain, in February 2010.

Development and validation of the terrain stability model for assessing landslide instability during heavy rain infiltration