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A growing body of work suggests that the extreme weather\udevents that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and\udmagnitude in a warming climate, thus potentially increasing flood damages in\udthe future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model\udIntercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to estimate changes in the frequency\udof modeled 1 % annual exceedance probability (1 % AEP, or 100-year)\udflood events at 57 116 stream reaches across the contiguous United States\ud(CONUS). We link these flood projections to a database of assets within\udmapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages\udthroughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century. Our model\udgenerates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the\udrange of historical observations and trajectories of future damages that\udvary substantially depending on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions pathway.\udThe difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions\udpathways approaches USD 4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014\uddollars), suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate\udsignificant monetary benefits over the long term in terms of reduced flood\uddamages. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied\udto flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to\udquantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets\udand damages on a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of\udsimplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of\udstatistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and\udlinking damage estimates only to 1 % AEP floods). Although future work is\udneeded to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological\udchoices, our results indicate that monetary damages from inland flooding\udcould be significantly reduced through substantial GHG mitigation

Climate change impacts on flood risk and asset damages within mapped 100-year floodplains of the contiguous United States