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This study provides some new insights into earthquake forecasting models that areapplied to regions with subduction systems, including the depth component forforecasting grids and time-dependent factors. To demonstrate the importanceof depth component, a forecasting approach, which incorporatesthree-dimensional grids, is compared with an approach with two-dimensionalcells. Through application to the two subduction regions, Ryukyu and Kanto,it is shown that the approaches with three-dimensional grids alwaysdemonstrate a better forecasting ability. I thus confirm the importance ofdepth dependency for forecasting, especially for applications to a subductionenvironment or a region with non-vertical seismogenic structures. Inaddition, this study discusses the role of time-dependent factors forforecasting models and concludes that time dependency only becomes crucialduring the period with significant seismicity rate change that follows alarge earthquake

Importance of three-dimensional grids and time-dependent factors for applications of earthquake forecasting models to subduction environments