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The assessment of flood risk is important for policymakers to evaluate damageand for disaster preparation. Large population densities and high propertyconcentration make cities more vulnerable to floods and having higherabsolute damage per year. A number of major cities in the world suffer fromflood inundation damage every year. In Japan, approximately USD 1 billion indamage occurs annually due to pluvial floods only. The amount of damage wastypically large in large cities, but regions with lower population densitytended to have more damage per capita. Our statistical approach gives theprobability of damage following every daily rainfall event and thereby theannual damage as a function of rainfall, population density, topographicalslope and gross domestic product. Our results for Japan show reasonableagreement with area-averaged annual damage for the period 1993–2009. Wereport a damage occurrence probability function and a damage cost functionfor pluvial flood damage, which makes this method flexible for use in futurescenarios and also capable of being expanded to different regions

Statistical model for economic damage from pluvial floods in Japan using rainfall data and socioeconomic parameters