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Abstract. South and Southeast Asia is subject to significanthydrometeorological extremes, including drought. Under rising temperatures,growing populations, and an apparent weakening of the South Asian monsoon inrecent decades, concerns regarding drought and its potential impacts onwater and food security are on the rise. Reliable sub-seasonal to seasonal(S2S) hydrological forecasts could, in principle, help governments andinternational organizations to better assess risk and act in the face of anoncoming drought. Here, we leverage recent improvements in S2Smeteorological forecasts and the growing power of Earth observations toprovide more accurate monitoring of hydrological states for forecastinitialization. Information from both sources is merged in a South andSoutheast Asia sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting system(SAHFS-S2S), developed collaboratively with the NASA SERVIR program andend users across the region. This system applies theNoah-Multiparameterization (NoahMP) Land Surface Model (LSM) in the NASALand Information System (LIS), driven by downscaled meteorological fieldsfrom the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) and Climate Hazards InfraRedPrecipitation products (CHIRP and CHIRPS) to optimize initial conditions.The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model sub-seasonal to seasonal(GEOS-S2S) forecasts, downscaled using the National Center for AtmosphericResearch (NCAR) General Analog Regression Downscaling (GARD) tool andquantile mapping, are then applied to drive 5 km resolution hydrologicalforecasts to a 9-month forecast time horizon. Results show that the skillfulpredictions of root zone soil moisture can be made 1 to 2 months inadvance for forecasts initialized in rainy seasons and up to 8 months wheninitialized in dry seasons. The memory of accurate initial conditions canpositively contribute to forecast skills throughout the entire 9-monthprediction period in areas with limited precipitation. This SAHFS-S2S hasbeen operationalized at the International Centre for Integrated MountainDevelopment (ICIMOD) to support drought monitoring and warning needs in theregion.

Developing a hydrological monitoring and sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting system for South and Southeast Asian river basins