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Abstract. Medium-term hydrologic forecast uncertainty is stronglydependent on the forecast quality of meteorological variables. Of thesevariables, the influence of precipitation has been studied most widely, whiletemperature, radiative forcing and their derived product potentialevapotranspiration (PET) have received little attention from the perspectiveof hydrological forecasting. This study aims to fill this gap by assessingthe usability of potential evaporation forecasts for 10-day-ahead streamflowforecasting in the Rhine basin, Europe. In addition, the forecasts of themeteorological variables are compared with observations. Streamflow reforecasts were performed with the daily wflow_hbv model used inprevious studies of the Rhine using the ECMWF 20-year meteorologicalreforecast dataset. Meteorological forecasts were compared with observedrainfall, temperature, global radiation and potential evaporation for 148subbasins. Secondly, the effect of using PET climatology versus usingobservation-based estimates of PET was assessed for hydrological state andfor streamflow forecast skill. We find that (1) there is considerable skill in the ECMWF reforecasts topredict PET for all seasons, and (2) using dynamical PET forcing based onobserved temperature and satellite global radiation estimates results inlower evaporation and wetter initial states, but (3) the effect on forecasted10-day streamflow is limited. Implications of this finding are that it isreasonable to use meteorological forecasts to forecast potential evaporationand use this is in medium-range streamflow forecasts. However, it can beconcluded that an approach using PET climatology is also sufficient, mostprobably not only for the application shown here, but also for most modelssimilar to the HBV concept and for moderate climate zones. As a by-product, this research resulted in gridded datasets for temperature,radiation and potential evaporation based on the Makkink equation for theRhine basin. The datasets have a spatial resolution of 1.2×1.2  km andan hourly time step for the period from July 1996 through 2015. This datasetcomplements an earlier precipitation dataset for the same area, period andresolution.

Contribution of potential evaporation forecasts to 10-day streamflow forecast skill for the Rhine River