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. Although hydrologic models provide hypothesis testing of complexdynamics occurring at catchments, freshwater quality modeling isstill incipient at many subtropical headwaters. In Brazil, a fewmodeling studies assess freshwater nutrients, limiting policies onhydrologic ecosystem services. This paper aims to compare freshwaterquality scenarios under different land-use and land-cover (LULC) change,one of them related to ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA), inBrazilian headwaters. Using the spatially semi-distributed Soil andWater Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, nitrate, total phosphorous (TP) andsediment were modeled in catchments ranging from 7.2 to1037 km2. These headwaters were eligible areas of theBrazilian payment for ecosystem services (PES) projects in theCantareira water supply system, which had supplied water to9 million people in the São Paulo metropolitan region (SPMR). We consideredSWAT modeling of three LULC scenarios: (i) recent past scenario(S1), with historical LULC in 1990; (ii) current land-usescenario (S2), with LULC for the period 2010–2015 with fieldvalidation; and (iii) future land-use scenario with PES(S2 + EbA). This latter scenario proposed forest coverrestoration through EbA following the river basin plan by2035. These three LULC scenarios were tested with a selected recordof rainfall and evapotranspiration observed in 2006–2014, with theoccurrence of extreme droughts. To assess hydrologic services, weproposed the hydrologic service index (HSI), as a new compositemetric comparing water pollution levels (WPL) for referencecatchments, related to the grey water footprint (greyWF) and wateryield. On the one hand, water quality simulations allowed for theregionalization of greyWF at spatial scales under LULCscenarios. According to the critical threshold, HSI identified areasas less or more sustainable catchments. On the other hand,conservation practices simulated through the S2 + EbA scenarioenvisaged not only additional and viable best management practices (BMP),but also preventive decision-making at the headwaters of watersupply systems.

Modeling freshwater quality scenarios with ecosystem-based adaptation in the headwaters of the Cantareira system, Brazil