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. Climate change may intensify during the second half of the current century.Changes in temperature and precipitation can exert a significant impact onthe regional hydrologic cycle. Because the land surface serves as the hub ofinteractions among the variables constituting the energy and water cycles,evaluating the land surface processes is essential to detail the futureclimate. In this study, we employ a trusted soil–vegetation–atmospheretransfer scheme, called the University of Torino model of land ProcessesInteraction with Atmosphere (UTOPIA), in offline simulations to quantify thechanges in hydrologic components in the Alpine area and northern Italy,between the period of 1961–1990 and 2071–2100. The regional climateprojections are obtained by the Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) viatwo emission scenarios – A2 and B2 from the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The hydroclimateprojections, especially from A2, indicate that evapotranspiration generallyincreases, especially over the plain areas, and consequently the surface soilmoisture decreases during summer, falling below the wilting point thresholdfor an extra month. In the high-mountain areas, due to the earlier snowmelt, the land surface becomes snowless for an additional month. Theannual mean number of dry (wet) days increases remarkably (slightly), thusincreasing the risk of severe droughts, and slightly increasing the risk offloods coincidently. Our results have serious implications for human life,including agricultural production, water sustainability, and generalinfrastructures, over the Alpine and adjacent plain areas and can be used toplan the managements of water resources, floods, irrigation, forestry,hydropower, and many other relevant activities.

Climate change over the high-mountain versus plain areas: Effects on the land surface hydrologic budget in the Alpine area and northern Italy