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. An ensemble simulation of five regional climate models (RCMs) from thecoordinated regional downscaling experiment in East Asia is evaluated andused to project future regional climate change in China. The influences ofmodel uncertainty and internal variability on projections are alsoidentified. The RCMs simulate the historical (1980–2005) climate and future(2006–2049) climate projections under the Representative ConcentrationPathway (RCP) RCP4.5 scenario. The simulations for five subregions in China,including northeastern China, northern China, southern China, northwesternChina, and the Tibetan Plateau, are highlighted in this study. Results showthat (1) RCMs can capture the climatology, annual cycle, and interannualvariability of temperature and precipitation and that a multi-model ensemble(MME) outperforms that of an individual RCM. The added values for RCMs areconfirmed by comparing the performance of RCMs and global climate models(GCMs) in reproducing annual and seasonal mean precipitation and temperatureduring the historical period. (2) For future (2030–2049) climate, the MMEindicates consistent warming trends at around 1  ∘ C in the entiredomain and projects pronounced warming in northern and western China. Theannual precipitation is likely to increase in most of the simulation region,except for the Tibetan Plateau. (3) Generally, the future projected change inannual and seasonal mean temperature by RCMs is nearly consistent with theresults from the driving GCM. However, changes in annual and seasonal meanprecipitation exhibit significant inter-RCM differences and possess a largermagnitude and variability than the driving GCM. Even opposite signals forprojected changes in average precipitation between the MME and the drivingGCM are shown over southern China, northeastern China, and the TibetanPlateau. (4) The uncertainty in projected mean temperature mainly arises fromthe internal variability over northern and southern China and the modeluncertainty over the other three subregions. For the projected meanprecipitation, the dominant uncertainty source is the internal variabilityover most regions, except for the Tibetan Plateau, where the modeluncertainty reaches up to 60 %. Moreover, the model uncertainty increaseswith prediction lead time across all subregions.

High-resolution ensemble projections and uncertainty assessment of regional climate change over China in CORDEX East Asia