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. Any change in the components of the water balance in a coastalaquifer, whether natural or anthropogenic, can alter the freshwater–saltwater equilibrium. In this sense climate change (CC) and land use and landcover (LULC) change might significantly influence the availability ofgroundwater resources in the future. These coastal systems demand anintegrated analysis of quantity and quality issues to obtain an appropriateassessment of hydrological impacts using density-dependent flow solutions.The aim of this work is to perform an integrated analysis of future potentialglobal change (GC) scenarios and their hydrological impacts in a coastalaquifer, the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer. It is a Mediterranean aquiferthat extends over 75 km 2 in which important historical LULC changeshave been produced and are planned for the future. Future CC scenarios willbe defined by using an equi-feasible and non-feasible ensemble of projectionsbased on the results of a multi-criteria analysis of the series generatedfrom several regional climatic models with different downscaling approaches.The hydrological impacts of these CC scenarios combined with future LULCscenarios will be assessed with a chain of models defined by a sequentialcoupling of rainfall-recharge models, crop irrigation requirements andirrigation return models (for the aquifer and its neighbours that feed it),and a density-dependent aquifer approach. This chain of models, calibratedusing the available historical data, allow testing of the conceptualapproximation of the aquifer behaviour. They are also fed with series representatives of potential globalchange scenarios in order to perform a sensitivity analysis regarding futurescenarios of rainfall recharge, lateral flows coming from the hydraulicallyconnected neighbouring aquifer, agricultural recharge (taking into accountexpected future LULC changes) and sea level rise (SLR). The proposed analysisis valuable for improving our knowledge about the aquifer, and so comprises atool to design sustainable adaptation management strategies taking intoaccount the uncertainty in future GC conditions and their impacts. Theresults show that GC scenarios produce significant increases in thevariability of flow budget components and in the salinity.

hydrology and earth system sciences

Integrated assessment of future potential global change scenarios and their hydrological impacts in coastal aquifers – a new tool to analyse management alternatives in the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer