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As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular\udoccurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate\udchange on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of\udsuch disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding\ud(e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have\udinvestigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the\udeffects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been\udaccounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess\udthe benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG)\udemissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage\udsystems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios\udthrough a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage\udmodel – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood\udvolumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe\udenlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected\udmeteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled\udModel Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban\udflood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the\udvolume in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e.\udRepresentative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban\udflood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation\udintensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 %\udless than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale\udclimate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes.\udComparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and\udlocal adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that\udlocal adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing\udfuture flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community\udrelative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment.\udThis study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when\udcoping with future urban floods

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations