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. China has suffered some of the effects of global warming, and one of thepotential implications of climate warming is the alteration of thetemporal–spatial patterns of water resources. Based on thelong-term (1960–2008) water budget data and climate projections from28 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison ProjectPhase 5 (CMIP5), this study investigated the responses of runoff ( R ) tohistorical and future climate variability in China at both grid and catchmentscales using the Budyko-based elasticity method. Results show that there is alarge spatial variation in precipitation ( P ) elasticity (from 1.1 to 3.2)and potential evaporation (PET) elasticity (from  − 2.2 to  − 0.1) acrossChina. The P  elasticity is larger in north-eastern and western China than insouthern China, while the opposite occurs for PET elasticity. The catchmentproperties' elasticity of R appears to have a strong non-linear relationshipwith the mean annual aridity index and tends to be more significant in morearid regions. For the period 1960–2008, the climate contribution to R ranges from − 2.4 to 3.6 % yr −1 across China, with the negativecontribution in north-eastern China and the positive contribution in westernChina and some parts of the south-west. The results of climate projectionsindicate that although there is large uncertainty involved in the 28 GCMs,most project a consistent change in  P (or PET) in China at the annualscale. For the period 2071–2100, the mean annual P is projected toincrease in most parts of China, especially the western regions, while themean annual PET is projected to increase in all of China, particularly thesouthern regions. Furthermore, greater increases are projected for higheremission scenarios. Overall, due to climate change, the arid regions andhumid regions of China are projected to become wetter and drier in theperiod 2071–2100, respectively (relative to the baseline 1971–2000).

Responses of runoff to historical and future climate variability over China