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. Many natural and social phenomena depend on river flow regimesthat are being altered by global change. Understanding the mechanisms behindsuch alterations is crucial for predicting river flow regimes in a changingenvironment. Here we introduce a novel physical interpretation of the scalingproperties of river flows and show that it leads to a parsimoniouscharacterization of the flow regime of any river basin. This allows river basins to be classified as regulated or unregulated, and to identify a criticalthreshold between these states. We applied this framework to the Amazon riverbasin and found both states among its main tributaries. Then we introduce the“forest reservoir” hypothesis to describe the natural capacity of riverbasins to regulate river flows through land–atmosphere interactions (mainlyprecipitation recycling) that depend strongly on the presence of forests. Acritical implication is that forest loss can force the Amazonian river basinsfrom regulated to unregulated states. Our results provide theoretical andapplied foundations for predicting hydrological impacts of global change,including the detection of early-warning signals for critical transitions inriver basins.

Scaling properties reveal regulation of river flows in the Amazon through a “forest reservoir”