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A stationary low pressure system and elevated levels of precipitable waterprovided a nearly continuous source of precipitation over Louisiana, UnitedStates (US), starting around 10 August 2016. Precipitation was heaviest inthe region broadly encompassing the city of Baton Rouge, with a 3-day maximumfound at a station in Livingston, LA (east of Baton Rouge), from 12 to 14 August 2016 (648.3 mm, 25.5 inches). The intense precipitation was followedby inland flash flooding and river flooding and in subsequent days producedadditional backwater flooding. On 16 August, Louisiana officials reportedthat 30 000 people had been rescued, nearly 10 600 people had slept inshelters on the night of 14 August and at least 60 600 homes had beenimpacted to varying degrees. As of 17 August, the floods were reported tohave killed at least 13 people. As the disaster was unfolding, the RedCross called the flooding the worst natural disaster in the US since SuperStorm Sandy made landfall in New Jersey on 24 October 2012. Before thefloodwaters had receded, the media began questioning whether this extremeevent was caused by anthropogenic climate change. To provide the necessaryanalysis to understand the potential role of anthropogenic climate change, arapid attribution analysis was launched in real time using the best readilyavailable observational data and high-resolution global climate modelsimulations.  The objective of this study is to show the possibility of performing rapidattribution studies when both observational and model data and analysismethods are readily available upon the start. It is the authors' aspirationthat the results be used to guide further studies of the devastatingprecipitation and flooding event. Here, we present a first estimate of howanthropogenic climate change has affected the likelihood of a comparableextreme precipitation event in the central US Gulf Coast. While theflooding event of interest triggering this study occurred in south Louisiana,for the purposes of our analysis, we have defined an extreme precipitationevent by taking the spatial maximum of annual 3-day inland maximumprecipitation over the region of 29–31° N, 85–95° W, whichwe refer to as the central US Gulf Coast. Using observational data, we findthat the observed local return time of the 12–14 August precipitation eventin 2016 is about 550 years (95 % confidence interval (CI): 450–1450).The probability for an event like this to happen anywhere in the region ispresently 1 in 30 years (CI 11–110). We estimate that these probabilitiesand the intensity of extreme precipitation events of this return time haveincreased since 1900. A central US Gulf Coast extreme precipitation eventhas effectively become more likely in 2016 than it was in 1900. The globalclimate models tell a similar story; in the most accurate analyses, theregional probability of 3-day extreme precipitation increases by more than afactor of 1.4 due to anthropogenic climate change. The magnitude of the shift inprobabilities is greater in the 25 km (higher-resolution) climate model thanin the 50 km model. The evidence for a relation to El Niño half a yearearlier is equivocal, with some analyses showing a positive connection andothers none

Rapid attribution of the August 2016 flood-inducing extreme precipitation in south Louisiana to climate change