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Water resources, which are considerably affected by land use/land cover(LULC) and climate changes, are a key limiting factor in highly vulnerableecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions. The impacts of LULC and climatechanges on water resources must be assessed in these areas. However,conflicting results regarding the effects of LULC and climate changes onrunoff have been reported in relatively large basins, such as the JingheRiver basin (JRB), which is a typical catchment(> 45 000 km<sup>2</sup>) located in a semi-humid and arid transitionzone on the central Loess Plateau, northwest China. In this study, we focusedon quantifying both the combined and isolated impacts of LULC and climatechanges on surface runoff. We hypothesized that under climatic warming anddrying conditions, LULC changes, which are primarily caused by intensivehuman activities such as the Grain for Green Program, will considerably alterrunoff in the JRB. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was adopted toperform simulations. The simulated results indicated that although runoffincreased very little between the 1970s and the 2000s due to the combinedeffects of LULC and climate changes, LULC and climate changes affectedsurface runoff differently in each decade, e.g., runoff increased withincreased precipitation between the 1970s and the 1980s (precipitationcontributed to 88 % of the runoff increase). Thereafter, runoff decreasedand was increasingly influenced by LULC changes, which contributed to44 % of the runoff changes between the 1980s and 1990s and 71 % ofthe runoff changes between the 1990s and 2000s. Our findings revealed thatlarge-scale LULC under the Grain for Green Program has had an importanteffect on the hydrological cycle since the late 1990s. Additionally, theconflicting findings regarding the effects of LULC and climate changes onrunoff in relatively large basins are likely caused by uncertainties inhydrological simulations

Effects of land use/land cover and climate changes on surface runoff in a semi-humid and semi-arid transition zone in northwest China