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The effects of historic and future land use on precipitation in the\udNetherlands are investigated on 18 summer days with similar meteorological\udconditions. The days are selected with a circulation type classification and\uda clustering procedure to obtain a homogenous set of days that is expected to\udfavor land impacts. Changes in precipitation are investigated in relation to\udthe present-day climate and land use, and from the perspective of future\udclimate and land use. To that end, the weather research and forecasting (WRF)\udmodel is used with land use maps for 1900, 2000, and 2040. In addition, a\udtemperature perturbation of +1 °C assuming constant relative\udhumidity is imposed as a surrogate climate change scenario. Decreases in\udprecipitation of, respectively, 3–5 and 2–5 % are simulated following\udconversion of historic to present, and present to future, land use. The\udtemperature perturbation under present land use conditions increases\udprecipitation amounts by on average 7–8 % and amplifies precipitation\udintensity. However, when also considering future land use, the increase is\udreduced to 2–6 % on average, and no intensification of extreme\udprecipitation is simulated. In all, the simulated effects of land use changes\udon precipitation in summer are smaller than the effects of climate change,\udbut are not negligible

Relative impacts of land use and climate change on summer precipitation in the Netherlands