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Statistical seasonal forecasts of 3-month streamflow totals are released\udin Australia by the Bureau of Meteorology and updated on a monthly basis. The\udforecasts are often released in the second week of the forecast period, due\udto the onerous forecast production process. The current service relies on\udmodels built using data for complete calendar months, meaning the forecast\udproduction process cannot begin until the first day of the forecast period.\udSomehow, the bureau needs to transition to a service that provides forecasts\udbefore the beginning of the forecast period; timelier forecast release will\udbecome critical as sub-seasonal (monthly) forecasts are developed. Increasing\udthe forecast lead time to one month ahead is not considered a viable option\udfor Australian catchments that typically lack any predictability associated\udwith snowmelt. The bureau's forecasts are built around Bayesian joint\udprobability models that have antecedent streamflow, rainfall and climate\udindices as predictors. In this study, we adapt the modelling approach so that\udforecasts have any number of days of lead time. Daily streamflow and sea surface\udtemperatures are used to develop predictors based on 28-day sliding windows.\udForecasts are produced for 23 forecast locations with 0–14- and 21-day lead\udtime. The forecasts are assessed in terms of continuous\udranked probability score (CRPS) skill score and reliability\udmetrics. CRPS skill scores, on average, reduce monotonically with increase in\uddays of lead time, although both positive and negative differences are\udobserved. Considering only skilful forecast locations, CRPS skill scores at\ud7-day lead time are reduced on average by 4 percentage points, with\uddifferences largely contained within +5 to −15 percentage points. A\udflexible forecasting system that allows for any number of days of lead time\udcould benefit Australian seasonal streamflow forecast users by allowing more\udtime for forecasts to be disseminated, comprehended and made use of prior to\udthe commencement of a forecast season. The system would allow for forecasts\udto be updated if necessary

Optimising seasonal streamflow forecast lead time for operational decision making in Australia