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Longitudinal and vertical salinity measurements are used in this study to\udpredict the extent of inland seawater intrusion in a deltaic river estuary. A\udpredictive model is constructed to apply to the specific tidal, seasonal, and\uddischarge variability and geometric characteristics of the Shatt al-Arab\udRiver (SAR) situated along the border of Iraq and Iran. Reliable hydrologic\udsimulation of salinity dynamics and seawater intrusion was lacking prior to\udthis study. Tidal excursion is simulated analytically using a 1-D analytical\udsalt intrusion model with recently updated equations for tidal mixing. The\udmodel was applied under different river conditions to analyse the seasonal\udvariability of salinity distribution during wet and dry periods near spring\udand neap tides between March 2014 and January 2015. A good fit is possible\udwith this model between computed and observed salinity distribution.\udEstimating water abstractions along the estuary improves the performance of\udthe equations, especially at low flows and with a well-calibrated\uddispersion–excursion relationship of the updated equations. Salt intrusion\udlengths given the current data varied from 38 to 65 km during the year of\udobservation. With extremely low river discharge, which is highly likely\udthere, we predict a much further distance of 92 km. These new predictions\uddemonstrate that the SAR, already plagued with extreme salinity, may face\uddeteriorating water quality levels in the near future, requiring prompt\udinterventions

Predicting the salt water intrusion in the Shatt al-Arab estuary using an analytical approach