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Soil moisture memory is a key component of seasonal predictability. However,uncertainty in current memory estimates is not clear and it is not obvious towhat extent these are dependent on model uncertainties. To address thisquestion, we perform a global sensitivity analysis of memory to key hydraulicparameters, using an uncoupled version of the H-TESSEL land surface model.  Results show significant dependency of estimates of memory and itsuncertainty on these parameters, suggesting that operational seasonalforecasting models using deterministic hydraulic parameter values are likelyto display a narrower range of memory than exists in reality. Explicitlyincorporating hydraulic parameter uncertainty into models may then giveimprovements in forecast skill and reliability, as has been shown elsewherein the literature. Our results also show significant differences withprevious estimates of memory uncertainty, warning against placing too muchconfidence in a single quantification of uncertainty

Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approach