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This paper investigates the uncertainties in hourlystreamflow ensemble forecasts for an extreme hydrological event using ahydrological model forced with short-range ensemble weather predictionmodels. A state-of-the art, automated, short-term hydrologic predictionframework was implemented using GIS and a regional scale hydrological model(HEC-HMS). The hydrologic framework was applied to the Hudson River basin( ∼  36 000 km<sup>2</sup>) in the United States using griddedprecipitation data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and was validated againststreamflow observations from the United States Geologic Survey (USGS).Finally, 21 precipitation ensemble members of the latest Global EnsembleForecast System (GEFS/R) were forced into HEC-HMS to generate aretrospective streamflow ensemble forecast for an extreme hydrologicalevent, Hurricane Irene. The work shows that ensemble stream dischargeforecasts provide improved predictions and useful information aboutassociated uncertainties, thus improving the assessment of risks whencompared with deterministic forecasts. The uncertainties in weather inputsmay result in false warnings and missed river flooding events, reducing thepotential to effectively mitigate flood damage. The findings demonstrate howerrors in the ensemble median streamflow forecast and time of peak, as wellas the ensemble spread (uncertainty) are reduced 48 h pre-event byutilizing the ensemble framework. The methodology and implications of thiswork benefit efforts of short-term streamflow forecasts at regional scales,notably regarding the peak timing of an extreme hydrologic event whencombined with a flood threshold exceedance diagram. Although the modelingframework was implemented on the Hudson River basin, it is flexible andapplicable in other parts of the world where atmospheric reanalysis productsand streamflow data are available

A retrospective streamflow ensemble forecast for an extreme hydrologic event: a case study of Hurricane Irene and on the Hudson River basin