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One of the consequences of recent glacier recession in the Cordillera Blanca,Peru, is the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) from lakes thathave formed at the base of retreating glaciers. GLOFs are often triggered byavalanches falling into glacial lakes, initiating a chain of processes thatmay culminate in significant inundation and destruction downstream. Thispaper presents simulations of all of the processes involved in a potentialGLOF originating from Lake Palcacocha, the source of a previouslycatastrophic GLOF on 13 December 1941, killing about 1800 people in the cityof Huaraz, Peru. The chain of processes simulated here includes(1) avalanches above the lake; (2) lake dynamics resulting from the avalancheimpact, including wave generation, propagation, and run-up across lakes;(3) terminal moraine overtopping and dynamic moraine erosion simulations todetermine the possibility of breaching; (4) flood propagation alongdownstream valleys; and (5) inundation of populated areas. The results ofeach process feed into simulations of subsequent processes in the chain,finally resulting in estimates of inundation in the city of Huaraz. Theresults of the inundation simulations were converted into flood intensity andpreliminary hazard maps (based on an intensity-likelihood matrix) that may beuseful for city planning and regulation. Three avalanche events with volumesranging from 0.5 to 3  ×  106 m3 were simulated, and twoscenarios of 15 and 30 m lake lowering were simulated to assess thepotential of mitigating the hazard level in Huaraz. For all three avalancheevents, three-dimensional hydrodynamic models show large waves generated inthe lake from the impact resulting in overtopping of the damming moraine.Despite very high discharge rates (up to63.4  ×  103 m3 s−1), the erosion from theovertopping wave did not result in failure of the damming moraine whensimulated with a hydro-morphodynamic model using excessively conservativesoil characteristics that provide very little erosion resistance. With thecurrent lake level, all three avalanche events result in inundation in Huarazdue to wave overtopping, and the resulting preliminary hazard map shows atotal affected area of 2.01 km2, most of which is in the high hazardcategory. Lowering the lake has the potential to reduce the affected area byup to 35 %, resulting in a smaller portion of the inundated area in thehigh hazard category

Modeling a glacial lake outburst flood process chain: the case of Lake Palcacocha and Huaraz, Peru