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The one-dimensional hydrodynamic ice model, DYRESM-WQ-I, was modified tosimulate ice cover and thermal structure of dimictic Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, USA,over a continuous 104-year period (1911–2014). The model results were thenused to examine the drivers of changes in ice cover and water temperature,focusing on the responses to shifts in air temperature, wind speed, andwater clarity at multiyear timescales. Observations of the drivers includea change in the trend of warming air temperatures from 0.081 °Cper decade before 1981 to 0.334 °C per decade thereafter, as wellas a shift in mean wind speed from 4.44 m s<sup>−1</sup> before 1994 to 3.74 m s<sup>−1</sup>thereafter. Observations show that Lake Mendota has experiencedsignificant changes in ice cover: later ice-on date(9.0 days later per century),earlier ice-off date (12.3 days per century), decreasing ice cover duration(21.3 days per century), while model simulations indicate a change in maximum icethickness (12.7 cm decrease per century). Model simulations also showchanges in the lake thermal regime of earlier stratification onset(12.3 days per century), later fall turnover (14.6 days per century), longerstratification duration (26.8 days per century), and decreasing summerhypolimnetic temperatures (−1.4 °C per century). Correlation analysisof lake variables and driving variables revealed ice cover variables,stratification onset, epilimnetic temperature, and hypolimnetic temperaturewere most closely correlated with air temperature, whereas freeze-over watertemperature, hypolimnetic heating, and fall turnover date were more closelycorrelated with wind speed. Each lake variable (i.e., ice-on and ice-offdates, ice cover duration, maximum ice thickness, freeze-over watertemperature, stratification onset, fall turnover date, stratificationduration, epilimnion temperature, hypolimnion temperature, and hypolimneticheating) was averaged for the three periods (1911–1980, 1981–1993, and1994–2014) delineated by abrupt changes in air temperature and wind speed.Average summer hypolimnetic temperature and fall turnover date exhibitsignificant differences between the third period and the first two periods.Changes in ice cover (ice-on and ice-off dates, ice cover duration, andmaximum ice thickness) exhibit an abrupt change after 1994, which wasrelated in part to the warm El Niño winter of 1997–1998. Under-icewater temperature, freeze-over water temperature, hypolimnetic temperature,fall turnover date, and stratification duration demonstrate a significantdifference in the third period (1994–2014), when air temperature waswarmest and wind speeds decreased rather abruptly. The trends in ice coverand water temperature demonstrate responses to both long-term and abruptchanges in meteorological conditions that can be complemented with numericalmodeling to better understand how these variables will respond in a future climate

hydrology and earth system sciences

Trends and abrupt changes in 104 years of ice cover and water temperature in a dimictic lake in response to air temperature, wind speed, and water clarity drivers